Get ASX Price
LATEST FINANCIAL PLANNING NEWS
Hot Issues
Get that money mindset this year | A 9-step guide to getting on top of your finances in 2024
Seven key charts for investors to watch - where are they now?
Is ‘keeping up with the Joneses’ holding you back?
Avoiding emotional bias in financial decision making
Countries producing the most solar power by gigawatt hours
How mindfulness can improve the way we work
Falling inflation - what does it mean for investors?
How to retire with greater confidence
The 1% rule – tiny changes add up to a BIG difference
Wheat Production by Country
How mindfulness can improve the way we work
2024 - a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook
How to retire with greater confidence
The 1% rule – tiny changes add up to a BIG difference
Australian home prices up on supply shortfall, but at risk from high rates
Catching the kindness bug
Helping you loosen the purse strings
How much do we depend on China?
Negative gearing: Time to re-evaluate your strategy?
The threat of higher oil and petrol prices flowing from the war in Israel
How much longer will Australian household savings last?
Four reasons inflation may rise again... and why we think it won’t
Managing the rising costs of raising kids
Time to Spring clean your finances?
Has the RBA finished rate hikes?
3 graphs that explain what’s happening with Australian wages
Why an emergency fund delivers peace of mind
How do interest rates affect your investments?
The financial literacy gender gap and what to do about it
What the manufacturing downturn means for investors and the economy
Will these super changes affect you?
9 money mistakes people make in retirement
Why the need to lift productivity
Intergenerational Report 2023
Oldest Buildings in the World
The confusing economic picture
9 money mistakes people make in retirement
How much do you need to retire comfortably in Australia?
How to prepare financially for starting a family
Understanding home loans
Peak Australian home ownership
Your end of financial year super checklist
Tax-deductible superannuation contributions explained
Making superannuation downsizer contributions
9 ways to boost your super savings
Sell in May and go away? The worry list for shares (and the good news!)
Can I go back to work if I’ve already accessed my super?
Your 7-point retirement planning checklist
Super contribution rules when you’re in your 60s and 70s
What happens to my super when I move overseas?
RBA Review
Term deposit vs savings account: what’s the difference?
How Australia’s perceptions of wealth are changing in the 2020s
The benefits of reaching your 60s in Australia
Understanding Lender’s Mortgage Insurance (LMI)
Overview of the Federal Budget 2023 – 24
Five charts on investing to keep in mind in rough times like now
Five charts on investing to keep in mind in rough times like now
Blue collar, white collar - how the job you do can affect your financial stress
5 things to consider when saving for a house deposit
How to review your direct debits and save
Top tips on how to save money
The RBA hikes rates by another 0.25% - are we there yet?
How to avoid bill shock with bill-smoothing payments
When can I access my super?
How investment market volatility could affect your super
Can you teach your kids to defer gratification?
5 ways to create your own good fortune this Lunar New Year
Seven reasons why Australian shares are likely to outperform global shares over the medium term
Understanding fixed, variable and split rate home loans
Should you give your teenager a credit card
How to trick yourself into saving money
How much super should you have at your age?
Guide to your preservation age
How to budget in 3 simple steps
Review of 2022, outlook for 2023
A 2022 Advent Calendar for our clients
11 things to know about your super
What is equity and how can I use it to invest?
Shares may have bottomed
What is the retirement age in Australia?
Positive results from research into the value of financial advice.
Budget October 2022-23 - Comprehensive summary
Planning a career break?
Federal Budget: all the key points you need to know
Federal Budget 2022: Winners and Losers
7 easy ways to save for the future today
Federal Budget 2022/23 - Documents and Facts Sheets
The quick guide to redrawing on your home loan
Seven things for investors to keep in mind in rough times like these
Who is winning the streaming wars
Considerations for different retirement living options
Reviewing your personal insurance policy
How does the First Home Super Saver Scheme (FHSSS) work?
Australia’s productivity challenge – why it matters and what to do about it
The Countries that Consume the Most Beer in the World
9 tips for first home buyers
6 tips to reduce your debts before you retire
How catch-up concessional contributions work
Booms, busts and investor psychology
Largest wind power producers in the world
Emergency fund: What it is and how to build it fast
Eight tips to consider in times of volatility
State and Federal COVID-19 support---Aug 2022
Rising home loan interest rates explained - what you need to know
How to budget as interest rates rise
Inflation in the 70s - baby boomer fantasy or nightmare?
Largest natural gas produces by country from 1970-2021
How could the latest Budget impact your tax return?
8 indicators you may not be ready to retire
What is an offset account and how does it work?
How to invest responsibly and ethically.
National property prices fall for the first time since the pandemic
Australia’s new Government
Is my employer paying me the right super?
7 age pension traps to avoid
What is gazumping and how to prevent it happening to you
Total GDP Nominal by Country ( 1960-2050)
Can you use your pension to retire debt free?
Super changes that could affect you from 1 July 2022
Your super checklist for EOFY
9 money conversations to have with your partner
Australian housing slowdown Q&A
Largest cities in the world 1500 to 2100
Federal budget 2022: Winners and Losers
Why Australian interest rates are likely to rise and when
Living costs for retirees rise at fastest pace in 10 years
9 money tips if you’re having a baby
The US Federal Reserve starts raising interest rates
Federal Budget 2022 – Overview
Federal Budget 2022 and YOU - Part 1
Federal Budget 2022 and YOU - Part 2
The escalation in Ukraine tensions - implications for investors
Why it’s important to think about insurance ahead of retirement
Budget smarter with the 50/20/30 rule
What happens to my super when I die?
DGP by country since 1800
Tax-deductible super contributions explained
Share market falls - seven things for investors to keep in mind
Vaccination rates (Dose)
Understanding insurance in your super
How can refinancing your home loan save you money?
2022 - a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook
Review of 2021, outlook for 2022
Bull vs Bear
How to save for retirement at every age
Five ways you can start to bridge the super gender gap today
5 money mistakes to avoid if you’re going guarantor
Our 2021 Advent Calendar.
How does a transition to retirement pension work?
Asian Economies (1960 - 2020)
The longer-term legacy of coronavirus
What you should know about creating your will and estate plan
What info is on my credit report and why does it matter?
The worry list for shares - how worrying are they?
Types of retirement pensions explained
7 ways to stay active and healthy in retirement
There’s an investor in all of us - and most of us already invest in one way or another
World's most productive countries
Why is Australian housing so expensive and what can be done to improve housing affordability?
COVID relief continues for retirees
Greenhouse gas emission by country since 1880
How does the First Home Super Saver Scheme (FHSSS) work?
Spouse super contributions - what are the benefits?
China’s growth slowdown and regulatory crackdown
Lockdowns and mental health
Salary sacrificing into super - how it works
Super bring-forward rules now apply to more people
The work test and work test exemption explained
Coronavirus continues to cause havoc globally and in Australia
Five ways to turn down the noise and stay focused as an investor
Considerations for different retirement living options
Videos and other resources for our clients
Keeping your super on track during a career break
Your guide to the super guarantee (SG) and rate changes
The never-ending coronavirus pandemic
Can I go back to work if I’ve already accessed my super?
2020-21 saw investment returns rebound
Tax Time Checklists - Super Funds; Individuals; and Company, Trust, Partnership
What is capital gains tax and when might I have to pay it?
6 steps to help you feel more positive about your finances
End of year (EOY) financial strategies
The 2021-22 Australian Budget - Analysis
Videos to help understand financial planning topics.
Investing on behalf of your kids
Super contribution caps are going up from 1 July 2021
Protecting your loved ones
Federal Budget 2021 - Overview
Building a more secure and resilient Australia
Federal Budget 2021 - Health
The return of geopolitical risk? - what to watch over the remainder of 2021
Relationship break-up entitlements when you're in a de facto
What do you need to think about when deciding when to retire?
6 steps to building good financial habits
RBA on hold and likely to remain easy for a long while yet as full employment gets more of a look in
More Aussies look to buy property and refinance
A new crypto world is emerging - the non-fungible token
Saving for your child's future
5 tips for creating your own good fortune this Lunar New Year
A broad range of Calculators.
Shares have had a very strong rebound since March last year so where are we in the investment cycle?
ATO Small Business Newsroom
Many in the dark about retirement
Transfer balance cap set to increase to $1.7 million
How to rebuild your super after a COVID-19 withdrawal
Financial wellness in 2020 - how did yours compare?
The global economy and investment markets this year
ASIC sounds warning around high-yield bond scams
Is $1m enough to retire?
How much super should I have at my age?
Tips for parents who became the bank of mum and dad
How to 2020-proof your finances
Vaccination rates as they happen around the world
2021 - a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook
2020 - the year that united us
Videos and other resources for our clients
How to review your direct debits and save
Majority of working Aussies to benefit from personal income tax cuts
2020 is coming to an end. Phew!!
Review of 2020, outlook for 2021
The right times for financial advice
Is your home loan still right for you?
3 golden rules that make saving for retirement easier
How to budget for your social life in retirement
Still The Lucky Country
Comprehensive list of COVID-19 initiatives and packages.
Understanding the Age Pension income and assets test
Considerations when downsizing your home
Ways to help reduce your debts before you retire
How to identify (and beat) your spending triggers
Budget 2020 - A very comprehensive break down.
Budget 2020 - Fact Sheets
Budget 2020 - At a Glance, Overview, Outlook
JobKeeper extension – changes implemented
Australia's "eye popping" budget deficit and public debt blow out
The economics of COVID-19 lockdowns
How mindfulness can improve the way we work
Taking control of your personal finances in a COVID-19 world
September update of latest COVID-19 initiatives.
Seven reasons why the trend in shares will likely remain up, albeit with bumps along the way
Market outlook Q&A
Changes to super contribution rules for over 65s
COVID-19: How long may your super savings take to recover?
Boost your super in the lead up to retirement
4 ways to help prepare your finances for a recession
JobKeeper - Latest Update
The fiscal cliff is more likely to be a fiscal slope
Australian economic and fiscal update
Protect yourself from COVID-19 related scams
The economic hangover of COVID-19: how long will it last?
How to rebuild your super after a COVID-19 withdrawal
Market update - July 2020
Investment options and retirement
Extra Tools & Resources for our clients.
The Australian economy and recovery from COVID-19
Digital payments and online banking for older Aussies
The coming surge in Australia's budget deficit and public debt due to coronavirus
10 medium to longer-term implications from the coronavirus shock
Thinking about insurance ahead of retirement
Gifting and financial generosity during coronavirus
Diversification - why it matters now more than ever
The value of financial advice
Our Website, your resources
Light at the end of the coronavirus tunnel
Market update
Changes to pension drawdown and deeming rates
Preserving retirement saving during COVID-19
How investment market volatility could affect your super
COVID-19: Early Childhood Education and Care Relief Package
The coronavirus pandemic and the economy – a Q&A from an investment perspective
Money challenges women face
Data so large it's hard to comprehend.
Is coronavirus driving a recession, depression or an economic hit like no other?
Holding your nerve – why retirees fear a market plunge
Historic $130bn wage subsidy to cover 6 million workers
Stage 2 – Covid-19 stimulus package.
Covid-19 Update - Small Business
PM launches $17.6 billion virus stimulus plan
The plunge in shares – seven things investors need to keep in mind
Three reasons why low inflation is good for shares and property
Can refinancing my home loan save me money?
Expected GDP by country 2010 to 2100
Super investment options – what’s right for you?
Life beyond work
Statistical picture of Australia - Update
A resource hub for our clients.
Market Update
Real Time World Population Growth - Wow!!
Dividends explained
Start 2020 with a best snapshot of Australia.
5 tips for green investing
Make Australians save again
Bushfires and the Australian economy
Grow your super in the new year
Australia by the Numbers
How to create realistic goals…… and stick to them.
5 days to get your finances in order
Our Advent calendar for 2019
5 reasons why I’m not so fussed about the global outlook
Superannuation changes
You'll be the life of the party when armed with this information!
7 tips to improve your financial wellness
Rebooting for retirement
5 reasons why the A$ may be close to the bottom
Resist today, relax tomorrow
Market Update 30 September 2019
How much superannuation is enough?
All Australia's vital statistics - October 2019
6 new financial videos
Boost savings with compound interest
High times for low interest rates
Market Update - September 2019
Will the world slip up on oil again?
Australia by the numbers - September 2019
Spending money in a cashless world
Dealing with being cash poor and asset rich
Saving for a rainy day
Market update
Access to more resources and tools than most websites.
Nine reasons why recession remains unlikely in Australia
Can I go back to work if I’ve accessed my super?
How's Australia doing statistically?
Protecting your super package.
Making the most of record-low interest rates.
Market Update 2019
How the top 10 global companies have changes since 1998
The longest US economic expansion ever
When can I access my super
Australia by numbers – Update
How to retire early
How to play catch up with your Super
Inflation undershoots in Australia
9 money mistakes to avoid in retirement
What a financial planner does to help.
Australia's vital statistics.
What kind of money parent are you?
How to save money
Federal Budget 2019 - Overview
How the 2019 Federal Budget affects you
New Global growth slowing, plunging bond yields & inverted yield curves
Women and Money
Market Update - March 2019
The problem with getting to 53 years of age.
How to avoid a travel debt hangover
Things to avoid as a newbie investor
Budget Time - How's Australia going?
Most older Aussies prefer home care over a nursing home
Why growth in China is unlikely to slow too far
10 money conversations to have when your relationship heats up
Australia slides into a 'per capita recession'
6 steps to get your money stuff together
All you need to know about how Australia is going.
Australian housing downturn Q&A
6 ways to reduce your credit card debt once and for all
5 life insurance questions you've always wanted to ask
2019 a list of lists - regarding the macro investment outlook
Part 4 - The major benefit of ‘behavioural coaching'
How to adult—a quick guide to personal finances in your 20s
How Australia is performing.
The Australian economy in 2019
Holiday budgeting tips— How to avoid a travel debt hangover
Australia - a comprehensive run-down of our vital statistics.
The Fed and market turmoil - the Fed turns a bit dovish but not enough (yet)
12 ways to avoid waste this Christmas
Rising US interest rates, trade wars, the US midterm election results, etc
Our Advent calendar for 2018
Responsible and ethical investing
What are the 3 biggest living expenses for households?
Your Adviser and Behavioural Coaching
Stop!! Don't do a paper Budget, use our online budgeting tools instead.
Information needed to be the BBQ expert.
Would you like to retire by 40?
The property cycle and the economy
How financial advice helps create wealth.
7 money personalities you may identify with or want to avoid
Are shares expensive?
How's Australia doing statistically?
Super investment options – what’s right for you?
Here's how to lead a happier life
What happened to all the worries about rising inflation and bond yields? Goldilocks, tariffs, Turkey & other things
Is it better to buy an investment property or home first?
Nine keys to successful investing
This information will turn you into a fireside expert.
How Australians will use their tax return
Lessons from the blue zones: secrets of a long life
Trumponomics and investment markets
Tools for budgeting, cash flow, Super and more ….
How tax deductible personal super contributions work
How much super should I have at my age?
The rise of the gig economy and side gigs (thanks to technology)
Statistics for all Australians
Watch out for tax scams
Now’s the time for tax planning
After the Australian household debt and east coast housing booms
Why it pays to contribute to your partner's super
Australia by numbers – Update
How to deal with financial stress – nearly 1 in 3 affected
Federal Budget 2018 – Overview
Your Budget
4 components of our 2018 Federal Budget
US China trade war fears – Q & A
Tools to help you manage your financial position are available on our site.
7 ways to boost your super
Australians reveal their priority goals
Australia by numbers – Update
Your retirement questions answered
How to make money by turning your unwanted goods into cash
Our website is really our digital office.
Bitcoin – is it really for you?
Spread your money, reduce risk
Love and money? It’s not about control
The pullback in shares - seven reasons not to be too concerned
Australia. All you need to know to be the expert.
Australian’s love affair with debt - how big is the risk?
5 ways to keep a cool head in a falling share market
2018 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook
Sports lovers enjoy better financial fitness
Where Australia is at. Our leading indicators.
The year that was and the year ahead
Add some extra cash to your New Year
New year, new financial resolutions
Our Advent calendar for 2017
Where are we in the global investment cycle?
Australia's vital statistics
12 ways to enjoy summer without spending a fortune
One in three Aussies travel without protection
Digital payment options could see you spend more this Christmas
If you’ve always thought property prices only go up…
Will Australian house prices crash?
Where are we in the global investment cycle and what's the risk of a 1987 style crash?
Money steps for women
Resources on our site to help you, your family and your friends.
Australian Dietary Guidelines and healthy eating chart (PDF)
How to retire, your way
Prepare for retirement without missing out today
Be the boss of your cash
The Australian economy bounces back again
Should you lend money to family?
Money mistakes people make in their 50s and 60s
Australian Dietary Guidelines and healthy eating chart (PDF)
Eight steps to improved cashflow... and lifestyle
Powerful Budgeting, cash flow and Super Tools available on our site.
5 ways Australians will use their tax return this year
Australia's leading causes of death - ABS
The threat of war with North Korea
Six traits of Australians living the dream
The break higher in the Australian dollar is likely to be limited
Money can buy you happiness, you’re just spending it wrong
Key Economic Indicators, 2017 – updated
Helping your kids buy a home
From Goldilocks to taper tantrum 2.0
What’s your debt age?
Doing a budget is a good idea but ....
Planning is the key to making it financially
What to do when you come into money
Managing your money when you move in together
Reduce your bills with these household items
It pays to contribute to your partner's super
How to cope with losing independence
Transition to retirement income streams
The Australian economy hits another rough patch
Watch out for tax scams
The three core pillars of this year's budget
Federal Budget - 2017-18 - Overview
Federal Budget - 2017-18 - Budget documents
Make the most of the current super caps
Five, four, three… it’s not too late to get more in super
Super changes are coming
What’s your debt age?
Australian cash rate on hold
Super changes this financial year - Dr Shane Oliver - video
The door is closing on super’s current caps
Is Donald Trump's honeymoon with investors over?
Estate planning and why you need a super plan
What does a comfortable retirement look like?
Give your career a health check
Super changes from July 2017
Changes to the Age Pension assets test
Keep your money safe over the silly season
Looking ahead at 2017
Review of 2016, outlook for 2017 - looking better despite the political noise
Merry Christmas for 2016, a Happy New Year and a prosperous 2017.
54.2 million worries
Five tips for happy healthy ageing
Thinking about managing your own super?
Sending more to the tax office than you should?
Government pulls back on proposed changes to super
Market Update - What to consider when investing in a low return world
Stop!! Don't do a paper Budget, use our online budgeting tools instead.
Oliver's Insight - Megatrends
Value of Advice
A growing family doesn't have to blow the budget
Blinded by optimism
Thinking about managing your own super?
The investment outlook - it's not all that bad!
What’s your biggest obstacle to financial success?
Ageing Parents
Should you own the roof over your head?
Be a senior entrepreneur on your own terms!
Brexit and other key developments
Brexit wins
Commentary on major issues - AMP
Five money habits for a happy financial year
Are grandparents giving too much?
Remember to factor in parental subsidies at tax time
2016-17 Federal Budget - AMP
2016 Budget in detail
How (and why) to talk to your adult children about insurance
Procrastination: Just do it. Eventually.
Why Australian property won't collapse
The Lucky Country holding up pretty well
Have we reached the bottom?
The evolution of the Chinese consumer
Retirement rolls around faster than you think
Pressed for time?
Changes to the Age Pension assets test
Women are building financial intelligence
Heirlooms no more
Initial market falls precede stronger returns - Shane Oliver
What exactly is income protection insurance and do I need it?
A rough start to the year, which could have further to go
Aged Care - Changes to Assessment of Rental Income
A bump in the road, then a new start
New year, new start – are you ready for retirement?
Review of 2015, outlook for 2016 - Dr Shane Oliver
We wish you a Merry Christmas for 2015 and a Happy New Year
Go easy on the plastic over Christmas
Resolutions for a wealthy future
The Australian dollar doing what it normally does - overshoot. Dr Shane Oliver
How to manage volatility in a low return world
The Australian economy - more help will be needed. Dr Shane Oliver
Insurance through my super
Four tactics to build an investment portfolio
The demand for global infrastructure
Help achieve your investment goals with dynamic asset allocation
The Power of Budgeting
Jump retirement hurdles with a coach
Preparing for the time of your life
A Super Loan for all reasons
Making a smooth transition
Australian Government - Budget 2015
Budget 2015 - some professional opinions
Achieving a comfortable retirement
Is off-the-plan on the money?
Should I take my super as a lump sum or not?
Do you have a key person in your business?
Tips for success in a competitive job market
All you need to know about buying at auction
To sell or not to sell?
Saving in a material world
Nine keys to successful investing

Dr Shane Oliver
Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist 
AMP Capital 



       


 


Key points


  • Investing during times of uncertainty can be nerve wracking, but even in good times it can be problematic. For this reason, it’s useful for investors to keep a key set of things – call them rules – in mind. 
  • The key rules I think are to: make the most of the power of compound interest; be aware that there is always a cycle; invest for the long term; diversify; turn down the noise; buy low and sell high; beware of the crowd at extremes; focus on investments offering a sustainable cash flow; and seek advice. 

Introduction


In the rough and tumble of investment markets its very easy to get distracted: by talk of the next best thing that will make you rich, by the ever-present predictions of an imminent crash, by the worry list that constantly surrounds investment markets relating to growth, profits, interest rates, politics, etc. 


The investment world is far from neat and predictable. The well-known advocate of value investing, Benjamin Graham, coined the term “Mr Market” in 1949 as a metaphor to explain the share market, but it also applies to most other investment markets. Sometimes Mr Market sets sensible share prices based on economic and business developments. At other times he is emotionally unstable, swinging from euphoria to pessimism. Mr Market is highly seductive – sucking investors in during the good times with dreams of riches and spitting them out during the bad times when all hope seems lost. 


This is particularly the case at present where noise around President Trump – often set off by a late night tweet - can set off market volatility and where this can be magnified by a digital media in which it seems everyone is vying for attention leaving the impression we are in a constant state of crisis and volatility. 


To help investors avoid being seduced by Mr Market there are nine key things to bear in mind. I haven’t written on this for a while but here is my list of the nine keys to successful investing. 



1. Make the most of the power of compound interest
One dollar invested in Australian cash in 1900 would today be worth $236, but if it had been invested in bonds it would be worth $877 and if it was allocated to Australian shares it would be worth $559,281. Although the average annual return on Australian shares (11.8% pa) is just double that on Australian bonds (5.9% pa) over the last 118 years, the magic of compounding higher returns over long periods leads to a substantially higher balance over long periods. Of course the price for the higher returns from shares is higher volatility – evident in rough patches like the Great Depression, 1973-74 after Elvis appeared via satellite from Hawaii to when The Brady Bunch was canned, 1987 and the GFC - but the impact of compounding at a higher long term return is huge over long periods of time. The same applies to other growth related assets such as property. So one of the best ways to build wealth is to take advantage of the power of compound interest and this means making sure you have the right asset mix in your investment strategy. (Speaking of The Brady Bunch – their house in Studio City LA was recently “sold” for over $US2m by the one family who bought it in 1973 for $US61,000. NSYNC bass singer Lance Bass offered “WAY over” the asking price of $US1.9m and was accepted but then got gazumped by a Corporate Buyer (likely a studio) who wanted the house at any price. Assuming the sale price is $US2.1m which is conservative and there was a net rental yield of 3.5% along the way this implies a compound annual return of 11.7%pa!) 



Shares versus bonds & cash over very long term - Australia



 
Source: Global Financial Data, AMP Capital


2. Be aware of the cycle
Investment markets – bonds, shares, property, infrastructure, whatever – constantly go through cyclical phases of good times and bad. Some are short term, such as occasional corrections. Some are medium term, such as those that relate to the 3 to 5 year business cycle. Some are longer, such as the secular swings seen over 10 to 20 year periods in shares. Some are even longer like the 35 odd year bull market in bonds since the early 1980s. But all eventually set up their own reversal. The trouble is that cycles can throw investors out of a well-thought-out investment strategy that aims to take advantage of long term returns and can cause problems for investors in or close to retirement. But they also create opportunities. 


3. Invest for the long term
One of the best articles on investing I ever read was by a US investment guy named Charles Ellis in the 1970s who observed that for most of us investing is a loser’s game. A loser’s game is a game where bad play by the loser determines the victor. Amateur tennis is an example, where the trick is to avoid stupid mistakes and win by not losing. The best way for most investors to avoid losing is to invest for the long term. Get a long term plan that suits your level of wealth, age, tolerance of volatility, etc, and stick to it. This may involve a high exposure to shares and property when you are young or have plenty of funds to invest when you are in retirement and still have your day to day needs covered. Alternatively, if you can’t afford to take a long-term approach or can’t tolerate short term volatility then it is worth considering investing in funds that target a particular goal. 


4. Diversify
Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. A common approach in SMSF funds has been to have one or two high yielding popular shares and a term deposit. This could leave an investor exposed to a very low return or if something goes wrong in the share. Through last decade many Australian investors wondered why hold global shares as Australian shares were doing so well. But this decade global shares have been the place to be reflecting stronger growth and the fall in the $A which enhances the value of offshore investments. Trying to get such swings precisely right can be hard so the trick is to have a diversified mix. But also, don’t over diversify as this will just complicate for no benefit. 


5. Turn down the noise
After having worked out a strategy thats right for you, it’s important to turn down the noise on the information flow surrounding investment markets and stay focussed. The trouble is that the digital world we now live in is seeing an explosion in information and opinions about economies and investments. But much of this information and opinion is of poor quality. As “bad news sells” there has always been pressure on editors to put the most sensationalised negative news on the front page of newspapers but there was hopefully some balance in the rest of the paper. But in a digital world each story can be tracked via clicks so the pressure to run with sensationalised and often bad news stories has been magnified. Hence click bait and all the talk about fake news. President Trump’s tweets are adding to the noise with markets sometimes jumping in response. He recently tweeted that “Tariffs are the greatest!” only to tweet 12 hours later in relation to the European Union that “I have an idea for them. Both the US and EU drop all tariffs.” Now I kind of get what he is saying and much of his utterances are bluster designed to get what he wants, but such gyrations cause confusion for investors. 


Of course, economists like to say more is preferred to less but when it comes to information and opinion around investment markets this is not necessarily the case. There is little evidence that the ramped-up news flow is helping investors make better decisions and hence earn better returns. We seem to lurch from worrying about one crisis to another. This year is seeing the usual worry list with worries about: US inflation, Fed tightening, global trade, Trump and the Mueller inquiry, the US mid-term elections, Chinese debt, Italy, the emerging world, increasing tension with Iran, tech stocks, etc. Investing now seems like a daily soap opera – as we go from worrying about one thing after another. This is all leading to heightened uncertainty and shorter investment horizons which in turn can add to the risk that you could be thrown off well thought out investment strategies. The key is to turn down the volume on all the noise. This also means keeping your investment strategy relatively simple. Don’t waste too much time on individual shares or funds as it’s your high-level asset allocation that will mainly drive the return and volatility you will get. 


6. Buy low, sell high
What you pay for an investment matters a lot in terms of the return you will get. The cheaper you buy an asset (or the higher its yield), the higher its prospective return will likely be and vice versa, all other things being equal of course. So if you do buy or sell try to buy when markets are down and sell when they are up. Unfortunately, many do the opposite which explains the old saying that “flows follow returns”! Inflows to investment funds or markets are strongest after periods of strong returns and outflows are strongest after weak returns’ which is the wrong way around. 


7. Beware the crowd at extremes
At various points in time the crowd can be right and being in a crowd can feel safe. However, at extremes the crowd is invariably wrong. Whether it’s lemmings running off a cliff, or investors piling into Japanese shares at the end of the 1980s, Asian shares into the mid 1990s, IT stocks in the late 1990s, US housing and dodgy credit in the mid-2000s or most recently with Bitcoin which peaked last December just when everyone was talking about it. The problem with crowds is that eventually everyone who wants to buy will do so and then the only way is down (and vice versa during crowd panics). As Warren Buffet once said the key is to "be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful". 


Bitcoin and major global asset bubbles



 
Source: Bloomberg, AMP Capital


8. Focus on investments offering sustainable cash flow
Lots of investments have been sold on promises of high returns or low risk but were underpinned by hope based on hot air (eg, many dot com stocks in the 1990s) or financial alchemy (eg sub-prime CDOs). But if it looks dodgy, hard to understand or has to be based on obscure valuation measures to stack up then it’s best to stay away. There is no such thing as a free lunch in investing – if an investment looks too good to be true then it probably is. By contrast, assets that generate sustainable cash flows (profits, rents, interest) and don't rely on excessive gearing or financial engineering are more likely to deliver. 


9. Seek advice
Given the psychological traps we are all susceptible to (like the tendency to over-react to the current state of investment markets) and the fact that it is not easy, a good approach is to seek advice via an investment service or a coach such as a financial adviser, in much the same way you might use a specialist to look after other aspects of your life like the plumbing or your medical needs. As with plumbers and doctors it pays to shop around to find a service or adviser you are comfortable with and can trust. But its worth it in the end. Even I have a financial adviser to help deal with the complexity of investing. 


 


Dr Shane Oliver
Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist 
AMP Capital 


 


------------------------------------------------------------------



Important note: While every care has been taken in the preparation of this document, AMP Capital Investors Limited (ABN 59 001 777 591, AFSL 232497) and AMP Capital Funds Management Limited (ABN 15 159 557 721, AFSL 426455) make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of any statement in it including, without limitation, any forecasts. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This document has been prepared for the purpose of providing general information, without taking account of any particular investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. An investor should, before making any investment decisions, consider the appropriateness of the information in this document, and seek professional advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation and needs. This document is solely for the use of the party to whom it is provided.


 


Hawthorn Financial Planning Pty Ltd ABN 47 011 910 918
Corporate Authorised Representative
Charter Financial Planning Limited ABN 35 002 976 294
Australian Financial Services Licensee Licence number 234665
Registered address Level 24, 33 Alfred Street Sydney NSW 2000
Legal Disclaimer | Privacy Policy



Hawthorn Financial Planning 67 King William Road UNLEY SA 5061 Ph: (08) 8339 7973

IMPORTANT INFORMATION | Site By PlannerWeb