Get ASX Price
LATEST FINANCIAL PLANNING NEWS
Hot Issues
Our Advent calendar for 2019
5 reasons why I’m not so fussed about the global outlook
Superannuation changes
You'll be the life of the party when armed with this information!
7 tips to improve your financial wellness
Rebooting for retirement
5 reasons why the A$ may be close to the bottom
Resist today, relax tomorrow
Market Update 30 September 2019
How much superannuation is enough?
All Australia's vital statistics - October 2019
6 new financial videos
DGP by country since 1800
Boost savings with compound interest
High times for low interest rates
Market Update - September 2019
Will the world slip up on oil again?
Australia by the numbers - September 2019
Spending money in a cashless world
Dealing with being cash poor and asset rich
Saving for a rainy day
Market update
Access to more resources and tools than most websites.
Nine reasons why recession remains unlikely in Australia
Can I go back to work if I’ve accessed my super?
How's Australia doing statistically?
Protecting your super package.
Making the most of record-low interest rates.
Market Update 2019
How the top 10 global companies have changes since 1998
The longest US economic expansion ever
When can I access my super
Australia by numbers – Update
How to retire early
How to play catch up with your Super
Inflation undershoots in Australia
9 money mistakes to avoid in retirement
What a financial planner does to help.
Australia's vital statistics.
What kind of money parent are you?
How to save money
Federal Budget 2019 - Overview
How the 2019 Federal Budget affects you
New Global growth slowing, plunging bond yields & inverted yield curves
Women and Money
Market Update - March 2019
The problem with getting to 53 years of age.
How to avoid a travel debt hangover
Things to avoid as a newbie investor
Budget Time - How's Australia going?
Most older Aussies prefer home care over a nursing home
Why growth in China is unlikely to slow too far
10 money conversations to have when your relationship heats up
Australia slides into a 'per capita recession'
6 steps to get your money stuff together
All you need to know about how Australia is going.
Australian housing downturn Q&A
6 ways to reduce your credit card debt once and for all
5 life insurance questions you've always wanted to ask
2019 a list of lists - regarding the macro investment outlook
Part 4 - The major benefit of ‘behavioural coaching'
How to adult—a quick guide to personal finances in your 20s
How Australia is performing.
The Australian economy in 2019
Holiday budgeting tips— How to avoid a travel debt hangover
Australia - a comprehensive run-down of our vital statistics.
The Fed and market turmoil - the Fed turns a bit dovish but not enough (yet)
12 ways to avoid waste this Christmas
Rising US interest rates, trade wars, the US midterm election results, etc
Our Advent calendar for 2018
Responsible and ethical investing
What are the 3 biggest living expenses for households?
Your Adviser and Behavioural Coaching
Stop!! Don't do a paper Budget, use our online budgeting tools instead.
Information needed to be the BBQ expert.
Would you like to retire by 40?
The property cycle and the economy
How financial advice helps create wealth.
7 money personalities you may identify with or want to avoid
Are shares expensive?
How's Australia doing statistically?
Super investment options – what’s right for you?
Here's how to lead a happier life
What happened to all the worries about rising inflation and bond yields? Goldilocks, tariffs, Turkey & other things
Is it better to buy an investment property or home first?
Nine keys to successful investing
This information will turn you into a fireside expert.
How Australians will use their tax return
Lessons from the blue zones: secrets of a long life
Trumponomics and investment markets
Tools for budgeting, cash flow, Super and more ….
How tax deductible personal super contributions work
How much super should I have at my age?
The rise of the gig economy and side gigs (thanks to technology)
Statistics for all Australians
Watch out for tax scams
Now’s the time for tax planning
After the Australian household debt and east coast housing booms
Why it pays to contribute to your partner's super
Australia by numbers – Update
How to deal with financial stress – nearly 1 in 3 affected
Federal Budget 2018 – Overview
Your Budget
4 components of our 2018 Federal Budget
US China trade war fears – Q & A
Tools to help you manage your financial position are available on our site.
7 ways to boost your super
Australians reveal their priority goals
Australia by numbers – Update
Your retirement questions answered
How to make money by turning your unwanted goods into cash
Our website is really our digital office.
Bitcoin – is it really for you?
Spread your money, reduce risk
Love and money? It’s not about control
The pullback in shares - seven reasons not to be too concerned
Australia. All you need to know to be the expert.
Australian’s love affair with debt - how big is the risk?
5 ways to keep a cool head in a falling share market
2018 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook
Sports lovers enjoy better financial fitness
Where Australia is at. Our leading indicators.
The year that was and the year ahead
Add some extra cash to your New Year
New year, new financial resolutions
Our Advent calendar for 2017
Where are we in the global investment cycle?
Australia's vital statistics
12 ways to enjoy summer without spending a fortune
One in three Aussies travel without protection
Digital payment options could see you spend more this Christmas
If you’ve always thought property prices only go up…
Will Australian house prices crash?
Where are we in the global investment cycle and what's the risk of a 1987 style crash?
Money steps for women
Resources on our site to help you, your family and your friends.
Australian Dietary Guidelines and healthy eating chart (PDF)
How to retire, your way
Prepare for retirement without missing out today
Be the boss of your cash
The Australian economy bounces back again
Should you lend money to family?
Money mistakes people make in their 50s and 60s
Australian Dietary Guidelines and healthy eating chart (PDF)
Eight steps to improved cashflow... and lifestyle
Powerful Budgeting, cash flow and Super Tools available on our site.
5 ways Australians will use their tax return this year
Australia's leading causes of death - ABS
The threat of war with North Korea
Six traits of Australians living the dream
The break higher in the Australian dollar is likely to be limited
Money can buy you happiness, you’re just spending it wrong
Key Economic Indicators, 2017 – updated
Helping your kids buy a home
From Goldilocks to taper tantrum 2.0
What’s your debt age?
Doing a budget is a good idea but ....
Planning is the key to making it financially
What to do when you come into money
Managing your money when you move in together
Reduce your bills with these household items
It pays to contribute to your partner's super
How to cope with losing independence
Transition to retirement income streams
The Australian economy hits another rough patch
Watch out for tax scams
The three core pillars of this year's budget
Federal Budget - 2017-18 - Overview
Federal Budget - 2017-18 - Budget documents
Make the most of the current super caps
Five, four, three… it’s not too late to get more in super
Super changes are coming
What’s your debt age?
Australian cash rate on hold
Super changes this financial year - Dr Shane Oliver - video
The door is closing on super’s current caps
Is Donald Trump's honeymoon with investors over?
Estate planning and why you need a super plan
What does a comfortable retirement look like?
Give your career a health check
Super changes from July 2017
Changes to the Age Pension assets test
Keep your money safe over the silly season
Looking ahead at 2017
Review of 2016, outlook for 2017 - looking better despite the political noise
Merry Christmas for 2016, a Happy New Year and a prosperous 2017.
54.2 million worries
Five tips for happy healthy ageing
Thinking about managing your own super?
Sending more to the tax office than you should?
Government pulls back on proposed changes to super
Market Update - What to consider when investing in a low return world
Stop!! Don't do a paper Budget, use our online budgeting tools instead.
Oliver's Insight - Megatrends
Value of Advice
A growing family doesn't have to blow the budget
Blinded by optimism
Thinking about managing your own super?
The investment outlook - it's not all that bad!
What’s your biggest obstacle to financial success?
Ageing Parents
Should you own the roof over your head?
Be a senior entrepreneur on your own terms!
Brexit and other key developments
Brexit wins
Commentary on major issues - AMP
Five money habits for a happy financial year
Are grandparents giving too much?
Remember to factor in parental subsidies at tax time
2016-17 Federal Budget - AMP
2016 Budget in detail
How (and why) to talk to your adult children about insurance
Procrastination: Just do it. Eventually.
Why Australian property won't collapse
The Lucky Country holding up pretty well
Have we reached the bottom?
The evolution of the Chinese consumer
Retirement rolls around faster than you think
Pressed for time?
Changes to the Age Pension assets test
Women are building financial intelligence
Heirlooms no more
Initial market falls precede stronger returns - Shane Oliver
What exactly is income protection insurance and do I need it?
A rough start to the year, which could have further to go
Aged Care - Changes to Assessment of Rental Income
A bump in the road, then a new start
New year, new start – are you ready for retirement?
Review of 2015, outlook for 2016 - Dr Shane Oliver
We wish you a Merry Christmas for 2015 and a Happy New Year
Go easy on the plastic over Christmas
Resolutions for a wealthy future
The Australian dollar doing what it normally does - overshoot. Dr Shane Oliver
How to manage volatility in a low return world
The Australian economy - more help will be needed. Dr Shane Oliver
Insurance through my super
Four tactics to build an investment portfolio
The demand for global infrastructure
Help achieve your investment goals with dynamic asset allocation
The Power of Budgeting
Jump retirement hurdles with a coach
Preparing for the time of your life
A Super Loan for all reasons
Making a smooth transition
Australian Government - Budget 2015
Budget 2015 - some professional opinions
Achieving a comfortable retirement
Is off-the-plan on the money?
Should I take my super as a lump sum or not?
Do you have a key person in your business?
Tips for success in a competitive job market
All you need to know about buying at auction
To sell or not to sell?
Saving in a material world
Market Update 30 September 2019

The table below provides details of the movement in average investment returns from various asset classes for the period up to 30 September 2019. 



       

 


Asset class (% change)

1 month

3 months

1 year

3 years 
(% pa)

Australian shares

1.8

2.4

12.5

11.9

Smaller companies

2.6

3.1

3.9

8.8

International shares (unhedged)

2.0

4.7

9.1

15.0

International shares (hedged)

2.3

1.5

2.6

10.8

Emerging markets (unhedged)

1.8

-0.4

5.1

10.5

Property - Australian listed

-2.7

1.1

18.4

9.5

Property - global listed

2.7

5.9

14.6

7.9

Australian fixed interest

-0.5

2.0

11.1

4.6

International fixed interest

-0.6

2.3

9.8

3.7

Australian cash

0.1

0.3

1.7

1.8


Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The Global Listed property reference index changed to FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Rental NR Index (AUD Hedged) as of September 2019


Overview and outlook


There were signs of the US-China trade tensions easing earlier in the month as a result of news of China exempting specific US products from previous tariffs and the US delaying a 5% increase to tariffs on US$250 billion worth of Chinese imports. Although there is still great uncertainty of the outcome of the US-China trade dispute, some further de-escalation is expected when talks resume in October. 


Many believed that it was just a matter of time, but the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, formally announced an impeachment inquiry against Donald Trump after a whistle-blower complaint questioned the ethics of some of Trump's dealings with Ukraine’s leader. 


In the UK, the cloud of uncertainty around Brexit continues to grow after a legal ruling which stated that the five-week shut-down of the UK parliament was null and void. Parliament has resumed since the ruling but struggles to reach an approved exit deal to present to the EU before the scheduled exit date of 31st October. 


In September we also saw drone attacks on Saudi Arabian oil facilities, which disrupted an estimated 6% of the global oil production levels. Despite initial fears for long term spikes in oil prices, there was an increase of just $2-4 per barrel from pre-attack levels as the Saudi productions resumed to close-to-normal production levels quickly. 


We would suggest for oil prices to be of concern for the Australian and global economies, oil prices must more than double, which would result in petrol prices of around $1.95/L. Amongst other factors, this is due to the fact that the global economy requires half the amount of oil to produce one unit of GDP than it did three decades ago. 


Oil prices are a long way from a choke point



 Source: Thomson Reuters, AMP Capital


Having provided consecutive 0.25% interest rate cuts in June and July, the RBA decided to hold the cash rate at 1.00% in September. Despite this, Australian economic data continues to provide some mixed signals. The Australian economy grew by 1.4% YoY to the June quarter which was lower than RBA expectations. Despite some job growth over the last few months, lower skilled job vacancies indicate a lower labour demand and thus a decrease in employment growth ahead as well as a further rise in unemployment (which remained steady at 5.25% over recent months). 


ABS employment data displayed that job growth in the last year was dominated by the public sector. This in addition to the limited wage growth in Australia may explain why the local economy has continued to experience weak GDP growth despite some positive economic data. 


Although the global economy appears to remain reasonable, the RBA believes that the numerous geopolitical concerns have caused the economic risks to be tilted to the downside. This has led to an additional 25 basis points cut to the cash rate in October by RBA and suggests the potential for additional rate cuts in coming months. 


RBA Cash Rate (%)
 
Source: RBA, AMP Research


Share markets


As global economic conditions remain somewhat stable despite the drone attack on Saudi Arabian oil production facilities and the uncertainty around the US-China trade war, Brexit and the political unrest in Hong Kong, investors moved away from defensive assets into other areas of the market. 


On a currency hedged basis, international shares were up 2.3% in September. US shares lagged global equities with a rise of 1.9%, whereas European stocks were ahead, gaining 3.7%. Within Europe, German equities (+4.1%) performed particularly well and UK shares (+3.0%) finished the month strong despite continued political instability. Investors also displayed increased confidence in Japanese equities which were up 5.9%, while emerging markets shares lagged with growth of 1.8%. 


Australian shares lagged global equities in September but still gained 1.8%, bouncing back up after the poor performance displayed in August. The domestic equities market saw investors move away from defensive assets. 


The energy sector experienced the strongest performance (+4.7%) as the Saudi drone attacks reminded investors of the importance of local energy solutions. The financial sector also performed well, gaining 4.1%. Some of the defensive sectors underperformed the Australian equities market with Telecommunication services and healthcare falling -4.2% and -2.5% respectively. 


S&P/ASX 200 Sector Total Returns (%, October 2019)

Source: Morningstar, AMP Research


The top performers on the S&P/ASX100 in September include Afterpay which continued its strong performance (+15.8%) after posting its FY19 results at the end of August and Boral (+13.6%) which rebounded after falling over 20% in late August. FMG (+13%) appeared to benefit from a debt restructure and displayed strong earnings momentum despite the decrease in iron ore prices over the last two months. Amongst the worst performers on the index was CYBG (-18.4%) which increased its provisions for legacy PPI costs by 50%. Alongside most gold stocks, Evolution Mining was significantly impacted (-12.5%) as the price of the commodity fell by 7.3%. A2 Milk continued to fall (-10.3%) as investors wait to see how well the company can produce returns on the back of recent marketing expenses. 


Interest rates


Both Australian and global fixed interest fell slightly in September. The Australian 10-year bond yield rose by 6 basis points, finishing at 0.97%. This led Australian fixed interest to fall by -0.5% in September. 


The US 10-year bond yield was up by 17 basis points to 1.67%. This contributed to the -0.6% fall in international fixed interest, which marginally underperformed the domestic market. 


Property


In line with the trend of other defensive domestic assets, Australian listed property was down -2.7% in September. On the other hand, global listed property outperformed its Australian counterpart as well as global equity markets, growing by 2.7%.


 


 


AMP


 


Hawthorn Financial Planning Pty Ltd ABN 47 011 910 918
Corporate Authorised Representative
Charter Financial Planning Limited ABN 35 002 976 294
Australian Financial Services Licensee Licence number 234665
Registered address Level 24, 33 Alfred Street Sydney NSW 2000
Legal Disclaimer | Privacy Policy



Hawthorn Financial Planning 67 King William Road UNLEY SA 5061 Ph: (08) 8339 7973

IMPORTANT INFORMATION | Site By PlannerWeb